Football fans can expect goals galore on the final day of the Premier League season, according to historical data.
The final round of top-flight matches – gameweek 38 – take place on Sunday with 10 games all kicking off at the same time.
It’s a big day for bookies with all 20 teams in action and the both teams to score (BTTS) accumulator is a popular bet for supporters on the final day as goals fly in at both ends.
And now stats compiled by UK sportsbook Midnite highlight the facts behind the last-day blow out.
Midnite looked at stats since the Premier League became a 20-team division in 1995-96 to compare gameweek 38 with the averages from gameweeks 1 to 37 and found:
- A 14.5% increase in goals per game
- A 10.7% increase games where both teams score
- A 7.3% increase in over 1.5 goals
- A 15.9% increase in over 2.5% goals
- A 30.1% increase in over 3.5 goals
- A 13.3% increase in home wins
- An 18.2% decrease in draws
A 15-year scoring streak
In 24 of the past 29 seasons – 82.8% – gameweek 38 has produced more goals than the average produced in previous gameweeks.
For the past 15 consecutive seasons, there have been more goals per game in the final gameweek than the goals per game stat throughout the season.
And for the past nine seasons, there have been more than three goals per game in gameweek 38.
This season so far, there’s been an average of 2.95 goals per game, so we would expect to see more than that in Gameweek 38.
The historical average tells us to expect a 14.5% increase – therefore a prediction of 3.38 goals per game on Sunday.
Last season saw a record 3.28 goals per game and was the first Premier League season to be higher than 3 goals per game.
In fact the last time we saw a top division of English Football have back-to-back seasons with more than 3 goals per game as an average was the 1966/1967 and 1967/1968 seasons.
We are unlikely to see that again as so far we have 1091 goals, to reach a season average of 3.00 we would need to see a total of 1,140 goals, so 49 goals would be needed on the final day, which would be 4.9 goals per game which would be highly unlikely.
The handbrakes are off
Midnite VP of Sportsbook Zach Amin said: “The last gameweek of the season often has a more open, unpredictable feel to it. “A mixture of teams playing with the handbrake off and teams desperate for points to win the title, qualify for Europe or avoid relegation, usually makes for great entertainment.“Although this season, the title and relegation are already sewn up, there’s still teams vying for European places and, as the historical data shows us, fans can look forward to goals galore.”
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